T
h
e
E
f
f
e
c
t
o
f
E
x
t
r
e
m
e
H
e
a
t
o
n
E
c
o
n
o
m
i
c
G
r
o
w
t
h
:
E
v
i
d
e
n
c
e
f
r
o
m
L
a
t
i
n
A
m
e
r
i
c
a

Register to attend

K
e
y
i
n
f
o
r
m
a
t
i
o
n

Date
Time
2:00 pm to 3:00 pm
Venue
Online (MS Teams)

A
b
o
u
t
t
h
i
s
e
v
e
n
t

Extreme heat slows economic growth in Latin America—each hotter day worsens the impact, potentially driving up to 68% of climate-related losses.

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extremely hot days. We use a panel regression framework at the sub-national (i.e., region) level to identify the effect of extreme heat on economic growth in Latin America accounting for acclimation to the season and to the local climate. Extreme heat has a negative and significant impact on economic growth, and the magnitude of the impact is increasing in the intensity and duration of heat. Our results suggest that 

The impact of each additional consecutive day of extreme heat is greater than the impact of the prior day. Extreme heat affects economic growth directly in addition to its indirect effect through higher seasonal mean temperatures and extreme heat could account for 34-68% of the total projected reduction in the annual economic growth rate at mid century due to temperature change. Our results suggest that extreme heat is one potential channel for the documented non-linearity in the impacts of rising mean temperature.

Header image credit: imsogabriel stock via Unsplash.

A
b
o
u
t
t
h
e
s
p
e
a
k
e
r

Bridget Hoffmann is an economist in the Research Department of the Inter-American Development Bank. Her research interests are applied microeconomics, development economics and environmental economics. Her research agenda is focused on environmental economics topics such as air pollution and extreme heat, and social protection. 

She has published in journals including Econometrica, Journal of Development Economics, and the European Economic Review. She received her Ph.D. in Economics from Northwestern University. She holds a bachelor’s degree in Financial Economics and Mathematics from the University of Rochester.

Bridget Hoffmann, economist in the Research Department of the Inter-American Development Bank.

Share this page

R
e
l
a
t
e
d
e
v
e
n
t
s