Workshop on Economic Stagnation and Deflation: Challenges for Japan in comparative perspective

The aim of this workshop is to analyse the causes of and remedies for economic stagnation and deflation in Japan from a comparative perspective. It looks at structural issues such as demographics, changes in labour markets, and the hollowing out of the manufacturing sector as well as financial, monetary and exchange rate policies. It discusses policy responses for Japan as well as potential lessons for Europe. The workshop is intended as first in a series of regular workshops organised by SOAS and partner institutions with the aim of developing an active research group working on challenges facing the Japanese economy.

Organisers: Machiko Nissanke and Ulrich Volz.

The workshop is funded by grants from the SOAS Japan Research Centre, the SOAS Department of Economics, and the SOAS Faculty of Law and Social Sciences.

Friday 3rd July 2015

9:45-10:00: Welcome

• Machiko Nissanke and Ulrich Volz (SOAS, University of London)

10:00-10:45: Keynote Speech on 'Stagnation and deflation in Japan and lessons for Europe'
Chair: Ulrich Volz (SOAS, University of London)

• Naoyuki Yoshino (Asian Development Bank Institute)

10:45-12:45: Session 1 'Stagnation and deflation in Japan and abroad'
Chair: Eiji Ogawa (Hitotsubashi University)

• Kenji Aramaki (University of Tokyo & SOAS, University of London):  "Stagnation and deflation of the Japanese Economy:  A critical evaluation"
• Sébastien Lechevalier (EHESS, Paris): "Stagnation and deflation in Japan: an institutionalist interpretation"
• Éric Morin (Bank of Canada): "Stagnation and deflation in Europe and Japan: a comparative perspective"

12:45-14:00: Lunch

14:00-16:00: Session 2 'Unconventional monetary policy'
Chair: Matteo Ciccarelli (European Central Bank)

• Andrew Filardo (Bank for International Settlements): "QE effectiveness and cross-border spillovers: lessons from Japan"
• Ayako Saiki (De Nederlandsche Bank): "How does unconventional monetary policy affect inequality? Evidence from Japan"
• Sophia Anastasia Latsos (University of Leipzig): "What are real wage effects of monetary policy in Japan?"

16:00-16:20: Coffee break

16:20-18:20: Panel discussion on 'Causes of and policy responses to stagnation and deflation in Japan and Europe'
Chair: Kenji Aramaki (University of Tokyo & SOAS, University of London)

• Naoyuki Yoshino (Asian Development Bank Institute)
• Robert Gilhooly (Bank of England)
• Franz Waldenberger (German Institute for Japanese Studies & Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich)
• Masao Uno (Ministry of Finance Japan/Embassy of Japan)

19:00 Dinner at Cigala Restaurant (for chairs and speakers only)

Saturday 4th July 2015

9:00-11:00: Session 3 'Hollowing out of the Japanese manufacturing industry?'
Chair: Machiko Nissanke (SOAS, University of London)

• Shigeyuki Abe (Doshisha University):  "Hollowing out of the Japanese industry?"
• Satoshi Miyamura (SOAS, University of London): "Comparison and dynamics of firm structure and labour markets in Japan and Asia"
• Ulrich Volz (SOAS, University of London): "Consolidation of Japan's banking sector and the real economy"

11:00-11:30: Coffee break

11:30-13:30: Session 4 'Stagnation and unconventional monetary policy in advanced countries: international spillover effects'
Chair: Ulrich Volz (SOAS, University of London)

• Eiji Ogawa (Hitotsubashi University): "The effects of an exit strategy of a quantitative easing monetary policy on East Asian currencies"
• Takuji Kinkyo (Kōbe University): "The spillover effects of Japanese economic shocks in the Asian Pacific region"
• Jörg Mayer (UNCTAD): "How could the South respond to secular stagnation in the North?"

13:30-14:30: Lunch

14:30-16:30: Discussion of future research activities