Be Careful What You Wish For: China Confronts Population Decline

China, which has been the most populous country in the world for two millennia, announced that in 2022 the onset of population decline had begun, with China now ceding the population title to India. 

This momentous change could be seen as a major success of CCP population policy, not only in helping relieve ecological and environmental pressures facing the world, but in reaching an important benchmark toward the official goal of CCP mandatory birth limits since the 1970s: to slow and eventually reverse population growth in China. 

Yet as the country approached that benchmark, China’s leaders stunningly reversed policy, with families since 2015 encouraged to have more babies, rather than fewer.  However, PRC birth rates have continued to fall, as the CCP has discovered what leaders in Japan, South Korea, Russia, Italy and other countries with shrinking populations know all too well—it is much harder to boost birth rates than to reduce them. 

These trends have led to spirited debates about whether China faces simply a serious challenge in adjusting to population decline versus a national crisis which will inevitably hinder the country’s rise.  My talk will review the history of China’s population policies since the Mao era, competing explanations of declining birth rates since 1970, the ending of the one-child policy in 2015, and the ineffectiveness of efforts to boost birth rates since then. I will conclude with a discussion of debates about how difficult it will be for China to adjust to long-term population decline.

About the speaker

Martin King Whyte is John Zwaanstra Professor of International Studies and Sociology, Emeritus, at Harvard University. He previously taught at the University of Michigan and George Washington University. He specialises in the study of grass roots social organisation and social change in the People’s Republic of China in both the Mao and reform eras. His most recent book is Remembering Ezra Vogel (co-edited with Mary Brinton), Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2022.

Registration

This event is open to the public and free to attend, however registration is required. 

Please note that this seminar is taking place on campus and will not be recorded or live-streamed.

• Chair: Professor Robert Ash (Emeritus Professor, SOAS China Institute)
• Organiser: SOAS China Institute
• Email: sci@soas.ac.uk

Image by Hanny Naibaho via Unsplash