China’s Demographics and its Implications for Future Growth

Dr. Lauren Johnston (Research Associate, SOAS China Institute)

Note: Internal event not open to external attendees.

Topic

This presentation will show that China’s ‘reform and opening’ has embodied what might be called an “economic demography transition” approach. It will further argue that contrary to the received orthodoxy, China is in fact better prepared than many other countries characterised by high elderly dependency ratios to meet the challenges of an ageing population. Implicit in this position is recognition that in its efforts to break out of the Middle Income Trap, China is seeking to join the list of the small number of countries that have achieved high-income status after getting old.
Against this background, the presentation will explain the key drivers that have shaped China’s ageing trajectory. It will explain how Beijing’s choice of an “economic demographic transition” approach has impacted on growth and how it will affect China’s future growth path. In order to contextualise the Chinese experience, comparative data will be presented for other countries. Finally, the presentation will assess the prospects for China becoming rich after its population has become old.

Biography

Dr. Lauren A. Johnston is a Research Associate at the SOAS China Institute, and a Research Fellow in the Faculty of Human Sciences, Law, Economics and Social Sciences at Mohammed V University, Rabat, Morocco. She is the Founding Director of New South Economics, a global strategy and economic research consultancy. Her work focuses on China’s economy and China-Africa economic relations.

Lauren was an undergraduate student at the University of Melbourne, and she holds an MSc in Development Economics from SOAS. She was the first Westerner to gain a PhD - in Economics - from Peking University. A former senior economist and ODI Fellow in the Ministries of Finance of Sierra Leone and Guyana, she has also been a consultant to the World Bank and UNICEF, and a Global Leadership Fellow at the World Economic Forum in Geneva.
Lauren’s most recent publication is ‘The Economic Demography Transition: Is China’s “not rich, first old” circumstance a barrier to growth?’ (Australian Economic Review, 2019).

Organiser: SOAS China Institute

Contact email: sci@soas.ac.uk

Contact Tel: +44 (0)20 7898 4823